| Cold & flu cases increase in week 5 (to 2 Feb) in Europe and US (to 1 Feb), with UK seeing decline in cases. US cases spike again and track well ahead of last year. EU cases remain elevated and ahead of last year. UK cases continue to decline. US sell-out accelerated at end of Jan, per scanner data. Cold & flu is c. 7% of sales for RKT, 11% for HLN, 10% for KVUE, and 3% for PG. We est 4Q24 OSG at -3% for RKT cold & flu (2% for OTC) & -1% for HLN Respiratory. |
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| Exhibit 1 - % of hospital visits due to influenza-like illness in US |
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| Source: US CDC fluview, Jefferies analysis |
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Hospital visits for ILI in the US accelerated in Week 5, well ahead of last year. Seasonal influenza activity remains elevated across the country and is increasing in most areas. |
| Exhibit 2 - Google trend for 'Flu' search - US |
| Indexed to the peak level within past 12 months. Latest week in dashed line due to incompelet data available |
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| Source: Google trend, Jefferies analysis |
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Web-based search queries for 'flu' tracks ahead of last year level in the US, with latest week accelerated again |
| Exhibit 3 - % of tests positive for flu - UK |
| Percentage of tests positive for influenza among all reported influenza tests, England |
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| Source: National flu and COVID-19 surveillance reports; Jefferies analysis |
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In the UK, Influenza positivity moderates to 14% in week 5 but remains ahead of 22-23 level. More broadly defined ILI cases saw declining trends as well. |
| Exhibit 4 - % of tests positive for flu - Europe |
| ILI/ARI virological surveillance in primary care – weekly test positivity |
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| Source: ERVISS; Jefferies analysis |
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Across Europe, primary and secondary care consultation rates have been increasing in several countries in recent weeks and currently indicate that there is significant respiratory virus activity in the EU/EEA. Seasonal influenza and RSV epidemics are ongoing. Influenza test positivity is tracking ahead of last year. |
| Exhibit 5 - US sales growth in cough, could and flu category |
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| Source: NielsenIQ; Numerator; Jefferies analysis |
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Nielsen data (to 26 Jan) shows accelerated growth in cold & flu sell-out, at 22% in week 4 and 9% in week 3. Numerator data shows decelerated decline, at -4% in week 3 vs -10% in week 2 (updated to 19 Jan). |
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